PAPER TRADING. Paper trading only: simulated money, no real orders. Educational, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and past results do not predict future results.
Updated Oct 30, 2026 03:17 AM ET. Every retired or killed paper book, why it stopped and what the lab learned. Failures are data.
Each book is shown as a $10k paper account with the real book's actual dollar results: it risks up to $500 per trade (about 1% of the original $50k book, trimmed after losses) and is shut off at $7k, the same $3,000 loss as the real book's $47k kill line. Paper trading, not a recommendation.
Result: Shut off at $4,505 (-55.0%) after 12 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Trading against the trend without confirmation is expensive.
Result: Shut off at $4,674 (-53.3%) after 16 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Short books need a clear way to tell when the market is against them.
Result: Shut off at $4,904 (-51.0%) after 12 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line: about 90% of recent trades stopped out, and rolling expectancy fell below zero.
Lesson: Calling turning points is hard; one signal on its own is not evidence.
Result: Shut off at $5,273 (-47.3%) after 25 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line with five losing positions open at once.
Lesson: Many correlated longs at once is one big trade. Watch total exposure, not just each position.
Result: Shut off at $5,375 (-46.2%) after 16 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Edges that looked fine in backtests faded quickly going forward. Forward paper testing is the real exam.
Result: Shut off at $5,640 (-43.6%) after 16 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Ideas borrowed from other markets do not always transfer cleanly to 24/7 crypto.
Result: Shut off at $6,015 (-39.9%) after 12 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Simple patterns can look great in tests and turn out to be noise.
Result: Shut off at $6,314 (-36.9%) after 16 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 17, 2026.
Lesson: Several early shorts died the same week. When books fail together, they were one bet.
Result: Shut off at $6,493 (-35.1%) after 17 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line on Oct 18, 2026.
Lesson: Mixing very different markets in one rule set makes the rules fit none of them well.
Result: Shut off at $6,723 (-32.8%) after 16 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line: breakouts kept failing and reversing in choppy markets.
Lesson: Systems that only work in one kind of market need a filter for when to stand aside.
Result: Shut off at $6,920 (-30.8%) after 7 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line even after narrowing the coin list.
Lesson: Cutting a strategy down to its best coins after the fact is curve-fitting; it rarely rescues it.
Result: Shut off at $7,272 (-27.3%) after 9 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line; open trades were closed at market.
Lesson: Trading both directions does not hedge risk if both sides are weak.
Result: Shut off at $8,708 (-12.9%) after 8 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line, nearly in lockstep with C689.
Lesson: Two books that look different can really be one bet. Check how they move together.
Result: Shut off at $8,744 (-12.6%) after 8 trades.
Why it died: Hit the $47k kill line; its last two open shorts closed in profit at the kill.
Lesson: A late lucky exit doesn't save a weak system; the rule held and the book stayed killed.
Result: Retired at $10,000 (+0.0%) after 0 trades.
Why it died: Removed early: the live sample was too thin to trust and it didn't match its test.
Lesson: A small, pretty backtest is not evidence. We now require 80+ trades.
How we count: dollar results come straight from each paper book's closed trades after estimated fees. Open trades are not counted until they close. Worst dip is measured on the book's closed-trade balance.
Why some books stopped below $7k: the $47k ($7k) kill rule started on Oct 17, 2026, and books already under the line were shut off that day at their real balance. Some books ended above $7k because trades closed at market at the kill finished in profit. Every figure is the real paper result.
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Paper trading only: simulated money, no real orders. Educational, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and past results do not predict future results.